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Archives of Virology

○ Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Archives of Virology's content profile, based on 15 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Adenovirus as a Causative Agent of an Acute Gastroenteritis Outbreak in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil.

Vidal, B.; Neves, S.; Santos, I. P.; Sardi, S. I.; Campos, G. S.

2026-10-21 gastroenterology 10.64898/2026.10.19.26365929 medRxiv
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Introduction: Acute gastroenteritis (AGE) is a cause of childhood morbidity and may be associated with human adenovirus (HAdV) infection. This study aimed to investigate the occurrence of HAdV in fecal samples from children with AGE in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil, as well as to molecularly characterize the identified strains and evaluate their cytopathic effects in cell culture. Methods: A total of 131 samples were analyzed using the nested polymerase chain reaction (Nested-PCR) technique. Molecular characterization was performed through Sanger sequencing and phylogenetic analysis, while Vero cell cultures were used to investigate the occurrence of cytopathic effects. Results: Of the samples analyzed, 13 (9.9%) tested positive for HAdV, while 118 (90.1%) were negative. The highest detection frequency was observed in children aged three years or younger, particularly those under one year of age. Phylogenetic analysis identified variants related to HAdV-F41 and HAdV-B3, revealing genetic differences and distinct clustering patterns compared with reference sequences. In cell culture, cytopathic effects were observed four days after inoculation, although further analyses are required to confirm productive viral replication. Conclusion: These findings demonstrate the presence of HAdV in the samples studied and contribute to understanding its genetic diversity and circulation in Salvador, highlighting the importance of epidemiological surveillance and further studies on its role in the etiology of childhood AGE.

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Detection and Characterization of Human Bocavirus in Stool Samples from an Acute Gastroenteritis Outbreak in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil, in 2024.

Vidal, B.; Neves, S. O.; Santos, I. P.; Sardi, S. I.; Campos, G. s.

2026-10-21 gastroenterology 10.64898/2026.10.19.26365916 medRxiv
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Introduction: Acute gastroenteritis (AGE) is a global public health problem and a major cause of mortality in low- and lower-middle-income countries. Human bocavirus (HBoV) is among the viral agents associated with this condition. Therefore, investigating the presence of HBoV in cases of AGE in Salvador, Bahia, as well as its prevalence and circulating strains, is important. Objective: To investigate the occurrence of HBoV infection during an AGE outbreak in Salvador. Methods: A total of 178 samples were analyzed for HBoV using nested polymerase chain reaction (nested PCR), and the amplification products were visualized by agarose gel electrophoresis. HBoV was detected in 5.7% of the samples analyzed. Conclusion: This study contributes to the understanding of HBoV epidemiology as a secondary agent associated with acute gastroenteritis during a norovirus outbreak in Salvador. Continued investigation and identification of the etiological agents involved in outbreaks are essential for evaluating the causes of AGE. These findings also highlight the need for broader diagnostic approaches and the importance of phylogenetic analysis for monitoring and controlling viral infections.

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Longitudinal Filovirus Seroreactivity Following Ad26.ZEBOV (Zabdeno) and MVA-BN-Filo (Mvabea) Vaccination in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Wallace, H. L.; Halbrook, M. L.; Kompany, J. P.; Hoff, N. A.; Merritt, S.; Mukadi, P.; Beya, M.; Kalengi, H.; Tambu, M.; Mossoko, Z.; Kelly, J. D.; Ball, A. H.; To, A.; Wong, T.; Kavunga-Membo, H.; Hensley, L. E.; Lehrer, A. T.; Kindrachuk, J.; Mbala-Kingebeni, P.; Rimoin, A. W.

2026-10-19 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.10.15.26365698 medRxiv
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Background: Filoviruses, specifically Ebola virus (EBOV), Bundibugyo virus (BDBV), and Marburg virus (MARV), have been the etiologic agents of multiple outbreaks of severe disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Two EBOV-specific vaccine regimens have been approved for use in outbreak scenarios, including the Ad26.ZEBOV/MVA-BN-Filo (Zabdeno/Mvabea) two-dose vaccine, where the MVA-BN-Filo booster dose contains EBOV, MARV, and Sudan (SUDV) virus glycoproteins (GPs) and the nucleoprotein from Tai Forest virus. While long-term immunogenicity of up to two years has been found in clinical trial settings, limited real-world data exists. Methods: Using a multiplexed immunoassay, samples (n=698 at baseline) collected in Mbandaka, Equateur province, DRC, between September 2023 and October 2024 were assessed for seroreactivity to six filovirus antigens (1 BDBV, 2 EBOV, 2 MARV, and 1 SUDV) at three distinct periods: baseline/pre-vaccination, 6-8 weeks post-first dose (Zabdeno), at booster administration (Mvabea), and one-year post-boost dose. Results: Substantial filovirus seroreactivity was found at baseline, with 48.7% (n=340/698) of individuals being seroreactive to at least one virus antigen. High baseline seroreactivity was found against BDBV GP (31.1%, n=217/698), with lower baseline seroreactivity to EBOV GP (15.5%, n=106/698), comparatively. Overall EBOV GP seroreactivity increased to 66.8% (n=376/563) at one year-post vaccine boost and 57.6% (n=250/434) of participants were seroreactive. Despite the booster dose inclusion of SUDV GP and MARV GP, there were no substantial increases in reactivity against either antigen at subsequent timepoints. Overall filovirus seroreactivity increased at all timepoints for the entire cohort, although filovirus reactivity decreased over the study period for those who were seroreactive at baseline. Findings: These data highlight detection of significantly elevated seoreactivity to EBOV GP following first-dose administration of Ad26.ZEBOV, which remained relatively stable one-year post-booster dose administration. Additionally, this study identifies high levels of baseline seroreactivity to BDBV GP despite no previous documented outbreaks in this region of DRC. These data suggest that vaccination with the Ad26.ZEBOV-MVA-BN-Filo vaccine induces stable seroreactivity against EBOV GP, but not to other filovirus antigens.

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AI-Empowered Multimodal Data Integration and Knowledge Discovery for Pharmacovigilance

Li, Y.; Zhou, H.; Yeh, F.-Y.; Sun, Z.; Zheng, J.; Alzaidi, S.; Guan, H.; Li, J.; Seger, D. L.; Wang, L.; Li, M.; Li, X.; Chen, T.; Plasek, J. M.; Li, H.; Jiang, A.; Hong, P.; Li, F.; Zhang, W.; Cui, L.; Bates, D. W.; Zhou, L.; He, Y.; Tao, C.

2026-10-21 health informatics 10.64898/2026.10.20.26365969 medRxiv
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Biomedical artificial intelligence (AI) increasingly relies on heterogeneous data sources, yet differences in data structure, terminology, evidence quality, and provenance complicate their integration into reliable knowledge resources. Here, we develop an evidence-aware framework for processing and integrating heterogeneous pharmacovigilance data from FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS) reports, biomedical literature, clinical trials, and electronic health records in Mass General Brigham. The framework combines large language model (LLM)-based information extraction, ontology-driven semantic normalization, cross-source evidence assessment, statistical and machine learning-based prioritization, and ingredient-based adverse drug event (ADE) relationship inference to transform heterogeneous evidence into a structured and evidence-based knowledge resource. The constructed knowledge system contains 11,588 drug nodes, 44,843 ingredient nodes, 3,275 ADE nodes, 993 indication nodes, and more than 2.47 million relationships, with each drug-ADE relationship assigned a confidence score. We further developed a drug-level web interface for accessing the knowledge resource and validated its utility in downstream AI tasks. Specifically, incorporating the developed knowledge resource improved the comprehensiveness, relevance, and overall quality of LLM-based drug-specific ADE synthesis and improved the precision and F1 score of clinical ADE relation extraction. These results demonstrate that AI-assisted processing combined with evidence-aware curation can transform heterogeneous biomedical evidence into reusable, AI-ready knowledge with explicit provenance and evidence strength information. The framework provides a general strategy for integrating heterogeneous biomedical data to support reproducible knowledge construction and downstream biomedical AI applications.

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Genetic Architecture of Plasma Amyloid and Tau Biomarkers in the Amish

Wang, P.; Jian, D. Z.; Song, Y. E.; Lynn, A.; Miskimen, K.; Whitehead, P. G.; Gulyayev, A. V.; Prough, M. B.; Dorfsman, D. A.; Laux, R. A.; Fuzzell, S. L.; Miller, D.; Hochstetler, S. D.; Miron, P.; Zaman, A. F.; Adams, L. D.; Caywood, L. J.; Clouse, J. E.; Herington, S. D.; Liu, Y.; Moore, N. C.; Ogrocki, P.; Lerner, A. J.; Griswold, A. J.; Cuccaro, M. L.; Vance, J. M.; Scott, W. K.; Pericak-Vance, M. A.; Haines, J. L.

2026-10-19 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.10.15.26365636 medRxiv
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Background: Plasma biomarkers offer a minimally invasive alternative for detecting Alzheimer disease (AD) pathology, yet the genetic determinants influencing their levels remain largely underexplored. Objective: To identify genetic variants associated with AD-related plasma biomarker levels in a Midwestern Amish cohort. Methods: We analyzed plasma levels of amyloid beta (A{beta}42/A{beta}40), phosphorylated tau 181 (p-tau181), and the p-tau181/A{beta}42 ratio in the Midwestern Amish. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) were used to examine associations with common genetic variants, while genetic linkage analysis was used to assess the potential impact of rare variants. Results: GWAS found associations between plasma biomarkers and the APOE gene. Additionally, novel candidate genes were implicated, including MME for A{beta}42/A{beta}40 ratio, and VEGFC and LRRTM4 for p-tau181. Linkage analysis identified significant signals for p-tau181 on chromosome 1, potentially involving the CSF1 and AHCYL1genes. Conclusions: The novel genetic variants associated with AD pathology implicate metabolic, synaptic, neuronal, and immune pathways. The use of GWAS and linkage analysis sheds light on the genetic architecture of AD-related plasma biomarkers.

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Patient-Reported Shared Decision-Making and Documented Advance Care Planning Among Adults With Alzheimer Disease and Related Dementias

Wang, X.; Macieira, T. G. R.; Hong, Y.-R.; Revere, L.; Xie, Z.

2026-10-19 geriatric medicine 10.64898/2026.10.15.26365674 medRxiv
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Objective To examine the association between patient-reported shared decision-making (SDM) and documented advance care planning (ACP) among adults with Alzheimer disease and related dementias (ADRD), and to assess whether this association differed between adults with and without ADRD. Design Retrospective observational study using linked survey and electronic health record (EHR) data. Setting and Participants Participants aged [≥]50 years in the All of Us Research Program who completed a patient-reported SDM measure and had linked EHR records. The primary analytic cohort included 3,635 adults with ADRD; 123,681 adults without ADRD comprised a secondary comparison cohort. Methods SDM was measured by how often clinicians asked participants about their opinions or preferences regarding medical care or treatment and was categorized as high (always/most of the time) or low (some of the time/ None of the time). Documented ACP was identified within 3 years before or after the SDM assessment. Modified Poisson regression with robust variance estimated prevalence ratios (PRs) and adjusted PRs (aPRs). Results Among adults with ADRD, 60.6% reported high SDM. Documented ACP prevalence was 5.1% among participants with high SDM and 3.6% among those with low SDM (P=0.027). High SDM was associated with greater ACP prevalence in the unadjusted model (PR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.04-1.99); the association remained positive but was attenuated after full adjustment (aPR, 1.28; 95% CI, 0.93-1.77). Among adults without ADRD, high SDM was associated with documented ACP (aPR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.03-1.33). Conclusions and Implications Among adults with ADRD, high SDM was associated with greater ACP prevalence in unadjusted analyses, although the fully adjusted association was not statistically significant. In contrast, higher SDM remained significantly associated with ACP among those without ADRD. The low prevalence of ACP highlights an important opportunity to expand discussions of current and future care preferences as a routine component of patient-centered care.

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Longitudinal associations between neuropsychiatric symptoms, structural and perfusion MRI changes in older adults with Mild Cognitive Impairment

Lombardi, G.; Leung, C. C.-Y.; Burge, R.; Zelaya, F.; Bhattacharyya, S.; Velayudhan, L.

2026-10-19 geriatric medicine 10.64898/2026.10.15.26364284 medRxiv
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Neuropsychiatric symptoms (NPS) are highly prevalent in Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI), conceptualized as an intermediate clinical state between normal aging and dementia. Although neuroimaging studies have reported associations between NPS and brain alterations in MCI, longitudinal evidence on NPS and their relationship with multimodal MRI measures remains limited. We aimed to investigate (1) longitudinal changes in NPS, volumetric assessment and measurement of regional cerebral blood flow (CBF) within the medial temporal lobe (MTL); (2) associations between longitudinal changes in MRI measures and NPS; (3) whether baseline MRI measures predicted longitudinal changes in NPS. Thirty individuals with MCI aged over 65 years were recruited, of whom eighteen followed up for a mean period of 29 {+/-} 8.9 months. There were significant reductions in total grey matter and white matter volumes, together with volume loss in the bilateral hippocampus, bilateral parahippocampal gyrus and right entorhinal cortex (pFDR[&le;]0.05) over the follow up period. Volume loss in the right parahippocampal gyrus was associated with increase in aggression (pFDR<0.01), and CBF increase in the right hippocampus and parahippocampal gyrus was associated with worsening in agitation (pFDR<0.01). Furthermore, lower baseline volume of the right entorhinal cortex was associated with increase in aggression, and lower baseline CBF in the right hippocampus and parahippocampal gyrus was associated with worsening of agitation (pFDR<0.05). Our findings highlight the importance of identifying NPS in individuals with MCI and the role of structural and perfusion MRI measures as promising biomarkers for monitoring disease progression and improving risk prediction of conversion to dementia.

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Cost-Effectiveness of Expanding Housing Access for People Experiencing Homelessness and Opioid Use Disorder in California

Ling, Y.; Tsung, S.; Alarid-Escudero, F.; Goldhaber-Fiebert, J. D.; Brandeau, M. L.; Reitsma, M. B.

2026-10-19 health policy 10.64898/2026.10.15.26365505 medRxiv
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People experiencing homelessness (PEH) have substantially lower quality-adjusted life expectancy and substantially higher healthcare spending compared to housed populations. California has the largest population of PEH in the United States, and an estimated ten percent of PEH have co-occurring opioid use disorder (OUD). We developed a lifetime, individual-level microsimulation of the 18,928 PEH with OUD in California to evaluate the health and economic effects of expanding access to housing through a Housing First approach, which does not require OUD treatment or abstinence. Increases in permanent housing and shelter access were based on Los Angeles County's Measure A goals, and we accounted for both housing and healthcare costs. Expanding housing access increased mean age at death by 0.34 years, reduced fatal overdoses for the cohort by 39, and produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $31,083 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, well below conventional willingness-to-pay thresholds. We provide evidence that housing is a high-value health intervention for PEH with OUD in California. Policymakers should support Housing First programs as part of integrated responses to the intertwined crises of homelessness and opioid use.

9
Interactions between respiratory viruses in US adults and children: a prospective cohort study

Hoffman, K. L.; Weil, A. A.; Wetzler, E. A.; Akinola, B. O.; Beauge, A.; Andy, C.; Adams, A.; Frivold, C.; Cox, S. N.; Ehmen, B.; Hatchie, T.; Clark, E. L.; Drummond, M.; Englund, J.; Han, P. D.; Kuntz, J. L.; Lo, N. C.; Lockwood, C.; Starita, L.; Mularski, R. A.; Naleway, A. L.; Carone, M.; Chu, H. Y.

2026-10-19 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.10.15.26365672 medRxiv
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Background: The relationship between recent viral infection and subsequent susceptibility to, or protection against, other viruses remains unclear, particularly across ages and symptom status. Methods: A prospective cohort study enrolled participants aged 6 months to 49 years in Washington and Oregon, USA, 2022-2024. Weekly nasal swabs were tested for SARS-CoV-2, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza A/B; additional swabs were collected during symptomatic illness and were also tested for parainfluenza (PIV) 1-4, endemic human coronaviruses (hCOV), adenovirus, human metapneumovirus, human rhinovirus (hRV), and enteroviruses. Proportional hazards regression models were used to characterize associations between incident symptomatic infection (illness) and history of recent illness due to other viruses (within 1-7, 8-14, 15-30, 31-60, 61-90, 91-180 days), adjusted for geographic region, age, sex, daycare/school/work attendance, household size, and number of children in the household. For SARS-CoV-2, influenza, and RSV, these analyses were repeated to study incidence of infection (including asymptomatic cases). Findings: Of 3,560 participants, 2,969 (83%) had [&ge;]1 illness over 4,299 person-years. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) in the short term ([&le;]2 weeks) after an illness were predominantly below 1, indicating that recent viral illness was often associated with lower risk of subsequent illness with other viruses. Across age groups, recent hRV illness was associated with lower risk of hCOV, PIV, and RSV illness (aHRs 0.07-0.27). SARS-CoV-2 illness was associated with a higher short-term risk of adenovirus and PIV illness (aHRs 3.20-3.33). In children aged 6 months-4 years, recent influenza illness was associated with higher short-term risk of SARS-CoV-2 illness. Including asymptomatic infections generally attenuated these associations. Interpretation: Some viral illnesses may alter short-term susceptibility to subsequent viral illnesses. Interactions may differ by age and symptom status. Funding: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Washington State Department of Health.

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Functional fine-mapping of the 9p21.3 cardiovascular disease locus implicates the lncRNA MIR31HG as an effector transcript in endothelial cells

Zhigulev, A.; Poujade, F.-A.; Gryzunov, N.; Buyan, A.; Li, H.; Bergman, O.; Liu, M.; Pradhananga, S.; Franco-Cereceda, A.; Swoboda, P.; Kulakovskiy, I. V.; Eriksson, P.; Sahlen, P.; Björck, H. M.

2026-10-19 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.10.15.26365688 medRxiv
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BACKGROUND: The chromosome 9p21.3 locus is among the strongest genetic risk loci for cardiovascular disease (CVD), yet the regulatory mechanisms underlying this association remain poorly understood. Previous vascular disease studies focused predominantly on the role of this locus in smooth muscle cell (SMC) dysfunction, whereas its potential role in endothelial cells (ECs) remains less well characterized. Here, we sought to identify candidate regulatory variants at 9p21.3, their distal target genes, and effector transcripts that contribute to CVD-related phenotypes in ECs. METHODS: Promoter capture Hi-C was used to map chromatin interactions at 9p21.3 in primary human ascending aortic SMCs (n=6), supplementing the previously obtained ECs (n=16) dataset. To support the regulatory relevance of these interactions, expression quantitative trait locus analysis was performed in 136 vascular biopsies. Variant effects were prioritized in silico using AlphaGenome. The regulatory activity of the prioritized region was validated using CRISPR activation. RESULTS: Chromatin interaction mapping identified a complex regulatory architecture at the 9p21.3 locus involving 19 putative regulatory elements and 15 genes across ECs and SMCs. MIR31HG showed the most recurrent distal promoter connectivity with the 9p21.3 region. Consistent with the chromatin interaction map, expression of MIR31HG transcripts was associated with genetic variation at the 9p21.3 locus. In ECs, the lncRNA MIR31HG, but not miR-31, was responsive to hemodynamic flow. Depletion of MIR31HG in ECs was associated with endothelial activation. Epigenetic tracks and deep learning predictions highlighted an active enhancer element at 9p21.3, which was subsequently validated by CRISPR activation and increased MIR31HG expression, confirming its capacity to regulate MIR31HG over a large genomic distance of approximately 538 kb. CONCLUSIONS: Altogether, these data implicate lncRNA MIR31HG as a likely effector of the 9p21.3 CVD locus, linking the cis-regulatory element and heritable genetic variation in the respective region to endothelial activation through long-range enhancer regulation.

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Deep learning-based electrocardiographic differentiation of Takotsubo syndrome from acute anterior myocardial infarction: explainability, human-AI interaction, and a utilization bias hypothesis

Kagawa, E.; Kato, M.; Hidaka, T.; Kunita, E.; Hironobe, N.; Matsui, S.; Kobayashi, Y.; Uotani, Y.; Teramoto, T.; Yoshii, K.; Okumoto, T.; Tani, M.; Dote, K.

2026-10-19 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.10.15.26365116 medRxiv
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Background: Artificial intelligence (AI) may improve electrocardiographic differentiation of Takotsubo syndrome from acute anterior ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), but its impact on human diagnostic performance, the added value of visual explanations, and differences by reader background and experience remain uncertain. Methods: Using 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) images from two hospitals, we developed and externally validated an ensemble of three deep learning models after self-supervised pretraining and fine-tuning. The diagnostic task used ECGs recorded within 14 days after symptom onset, regardless of reperfusion status. We conducted a four-phase reader study. Phases 1-3 compared unaided interpretation, a reference sheet, and additional AI assistance. In Phase 4, readers evaluated a new ECG set after randomization to reference-sheet support alone, with AI predictions, or with AI predictions plus gradient-weighted class activation mapping (Grad-CAM) heatmaps. Diagnostic correctness was analyzed using generalized linear mixed-effects models. Exploratory analyses examined differences by cardiologist status and experience. Results: Development and external-validation cohorts, including healthy controls, comprised 832 and 95 participants, respectively. For Takotsubo-STEMI discrimination, external-validation accuracy was 0.914, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic and precision-recall curves of 0.970 and 0.984. Seventy healthcare providers completed the reader study. The estimated probability of correct diagnosis increased from 0.632 without assistance to 0.864 with AI assistance (odds ratio [OR], 3.71; P<0.001). In randomized Phase 4, AI assistance improved accuracy vs reference-sheet support alone (OR, 4.28; 95% CI, 3.08-5.95; P<0.001), and Grad-CAM provided additional benefit (OR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.04-2.25; P=0.033). Exploratory analyses showed greater improvement among less experienced readers; with AI assistance, non-cardiologists outperformed cardiologists. AI-assisted readers remained less accurate overall than the model alone. Conclusions: An ECG image-based ensemble differentiated Takotsubo syndrome from anterior STEMI and improved reader accuracy. Visual explanations provided additional benefit, while experience-related differences highlight the importance of effective human-AI interaction.

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From meal text to carbohydrate to postprandial glucose rise: QLoRA fine-tuning of the Qwen3-4B language model and gradient-boosting prediction in type 2 diabetes

Bou Ali, M. N.; Lassoued, N.; Ben Amor, B.; Nasr, S.; Aouididi, M. A.

2026-10-19 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.10.15.26365634 medRxiv
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Background. In people with type 2 diabetes (T2D), postprandial glucose weighs on glycaemic control, and carbohydrate counting is difficult. Patients can describe their meal but rarely quantify it. Objective. To assess (1) whether a small open large language model (LLM), fine-tuned on public data, estimates the carbohydrate content of a meal described in words, and (2) what this carbohydrate adds to the prediction of the postprandial glucose rise in two public cohorts. Methods. Step 1: the Qwen3-4B LLM was fine-tuned with QLoRA on Nutrition5k dishes and compared with an automatically matched USDA food composition table and with Qwen3-4B and Qwen3-8B used without training, on test dishes (internal control) and on 100 real meals of ShanghaiT2DM patients, whose reference carbohydrate was computed from the recorded quantities. Step 2: the maximum glucose rise between 0 and 120 minutes ({Delta}Gmax) was predicted by personalised gradient boosting (M2), compared with a spline linear regression and with the Chronos-2 foundation model, using only information available at meal start and person-level cross-validation, in ShanghaiT2DM (people with T2D recruited in two Shanghai hospitals; carbohydrate estimated by the LLM) and CGMacros (free-living adults in Santa Barbara, California; carbohydrate entered in the dataset, no text). Step 3: the model was transferred between datasets. 95% confidence intervals (CI) were obtained by cluster BCa bootstrap (2,000 resamples). Results. On the 100 real meals, the carbohydrate mean absolute error (MAE) of the fine-tuned model was 12.2 [9.9, 15.2] g, almost half that of the table (22.6 g; paired difference -10.5 [-16.8, -6.0] g) and nearly a third of that of the same model without fine-tuning (34.3 g), with a bias of -10.3 g; on test dishes it was 2.2 [2.0, 2.5] g. Personalised gradient boosting (M2) reached a correlation between predicted and observed rises of r = 0.63 [0.55, 0.69] in CGMacros (1,286 meals, 45 adults) and 0.49 [0.42, 0.54] in ShanghaiT2DM (2,339 meals, 99 people with T2D), about twice the linear reference (r = 0.32 and 0.23); for a rise above 50 mg/dL, its area under the ROC curve (AUROC) was 0.80 and 0.74, versus 0.64 and 0.68 with pre-meal glucose alone. Adding carbohydrate to pre-meal glucose changed r by 0.095 [0.068, 0.128] in CGMacros and by 0.004 [-0.010, 0.017] in ShanghaiT2DM; difference between datasets: 0.091 [0.060, 0.126]. Applied from one dataset to the other, the model lost correlation ({Delta}r = -0.11 [-0.17, -0.05] towards ShanghaiT2DM and -0.12 [-0.19, -0.04] towards CGMacros). The full "text [-&gt;] LLM [-&gt;] glucose" chain was evaluated in ShanghaiT2DM only. Conclusion. An open 4-billion-parameter LLM, fine-tuned with QLoRA on public data and usable offline, almost halves the error of carbohydrate counting for real meals described in words compared with an automatically matched table, with an underestimation of large meals. Personalised gradient boosting, based on pre-meal glucose and the person's usual response, doubles the correlation of a linear reference for predicting the glucose rise in both cohorts. Carbohydrate improved this prediction in CGMacros but not in ShanghaiT2DM; the two datasets differ in many respects, and the cause of this gap is not established.

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Pharmacovigilance and Mechanistic Analysis of Adverse Reaction Differences Across EGFR Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor Generations in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Arojo, O.; Jones, A. M.

2026-10-19 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.10.16.26364955 medRxiv
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Background: Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) are widely used for EGFR-mutated non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) but have distinct toxicity profiles across generations. Aims: To investigate relationships between EGFR-TKI physicochemical, pharmacokinetic and pharmacological properties and drug-specific adverse drug reactions (ADRs) using national and global pharmacovigilance data. Methods: ADRs for erlotinib, afatinib and osimertinib were extracted from the UK MHRA Yellow Card scheme and WHO VigiAccess. Disproportionality analysis used reporting odds ratios (RORs). Signals were defined as ROR >2, lower 95% confidence interval >1 and >3 cases. Drug properties were curated from ChEMBL, emc, SmPC and EMA sources. Results: VigiAccess contained 88,662 individual case safety reports (163,619 ADRs) and Yellow Card contained 752 reports (1,814 ADRs). Four System Organ Class (SOC) signals were identified in VigiAccess and three in Yellow Card, with five additional Yellow Card Preferred Term signals. Eye disorders showed the strongest consistent association with erlotinib (VigiAccess ROR 4.33; Yellow Card ROR 4.18). Osimertinib was associated with pneumonitis (ROR 7.67) and pulmonary embolism (ROR 3.94). Afatinib showed psychiatric disorder signals in both databases (ROR 3.2-3.3) and diarrhoea (ROR 2.79). Neoplasm-related signals likely reflected confounding by indication. Conclusions: EGFR-TKIs demonstrate generation-specific pharmacovigilance profiles. Integration with drug properties supports mechanistic plausibility for several signals, while the atypical afatinib psychiatric association warrants further investigation. Findings are hypothesis-generating and require confirmation in controlled observational or mechanistic studies.

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From Gut to Brain: A Longitudinal Assessment of Intestinal Permeability and Immune Activation Markers in Early-Stage Schizophrenia Spectrum Disorders

Jakob, L.; Mahayri, T. M.; Koutrouli, I. R. A.; Kekrtova, K.; Novakova, D.; Totkova, T.; Spaniel, F.

2026-10-19 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.10.16.26364494 medRxiv
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Schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSD) have been linked to immune dysregulation and altered intestinal barrier function, although findings across studies remain inconsistent. The present study investigated circulating markers of intestinal permeability and immune activation in individuals with early-stage SSD and healthy controls and examined their associations with clinical outcomes. Serum concentrations of intestinal fatty acid-binding protein (iFABP), zonulin, soluble CD14 (sCD14), bactericidal/permeability-increasing protein (BPI), and lipopolysaccharide-binding protein (LBP) were measured in 36 patients with SSD at baseline and one-year follow-up and in 36 matched healthy controls. Linear mixed-effects models adjusted for age, sex, and body mass index (BMI) were used to evaluate group differences and longitudinal changes. No biomarker differences between patients and controls, and no longitudinal changes within patients, remained statistically significant after correction for multiple testing. Similarly, biomarker concentrations were not associated with symptom severity, global functioning, or neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR). Exploratory analyses identified a robust positive association between BMI and zonulin concentrations and additional associations among iFABP, LBP, and sCD14. Exploratory mixed-effects models identified a negative non-significant association between iFABP and sCD14 after adjustment for age, sex, and BMI. Overall, the findings do not support a generalized alteration of gut permeability or immune activation markers in SSD. Instead, they suggest that variation in gut-related biomarkers may be more strongly influenced by metabolic and individual factors than by diagnosis or current symptom severity.

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Spectral power and functional connectivity of resting EEG in people exposed to armed conflict and controls

Nitola-Pulido, L.; Bonilla, D. S.; Herrera Murcia, E.; Reyes Gavilan, P. A.; Santamaria-Garcia, H.

2026-10-19 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.10.15.26365676 medRxiv
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Exposure to armed conflict can leave persistent effects on mental health, yet its neurophysiological correlates remain poorly characterized, particularly in populations exposed to prolonged violence outside narrowly defined post traumatic stress disorder samples. Here we examined resting state electroencephalographic activity in 122 Colombian adults, including 74 participants exposed to armed conflict and 48 controls. Eyes closed EEG was analysed for 240 seconds per participant. We quantified absolute and relative spectral power across delta, theta, alpha and beta bands and regional functional connectivity using weighted phase lag index in theta, alpha and beta. Group comparisons were adjusted for age, education, sex and assessment year, with correction across 78 EEG contrasts. Median occipital and global alpha power was lower in exposed participants, although adjusted estimates were close to the null and confidence intervals were broad. Temporal theta relative power was lower in exposed participants at nominal significance, but this association did not survive Holm correction. No spectral power or regional connectivity contrast remained significant after multiple testing correction. Exploratory associations between EEG measures and MoCA performance were modest in participants with confirmed scores. These findings provide a systematic characterization of resting EEG after exposure to armed conflict in a population shaped by prolonged violence and displacement. They also indicate that large or widespread alterations in resting spectral power and connectivity were not detectable with the current sample and analytical framework, while defining candidate signals and methodological priorities for larger studies of conflict related brain health.

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Impact of air pollution and tobacco smoke on the placental small non-coding RNA landscape

Falcon-Gracia, A.; Vespalcova, H.; Peligri, D.; Aguilar-Lacasana, S.; Pantano, L.; Nurtdinov, R. N.; Garcia, Z.; Dominguez, A.; Gomez-Herrera, L.; Sanchez, O.; Gascon, M.; Foraster, M.; Guigo, R.; Llurba, E.; Gomez-Roig, M. D.; Rivas, I.; Dadvand, P.; Sunyer, J.; Bustamante, M.; Cosin-Tomas, M.

2026-10-19 public and global health 10.64898/2026.10.16.26365732 medRxiv
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Fetal development is highly sensitive to environmental influences, including maternal smoking during pregnancy (MSDP) and air pollution. The placenta may play a central role in mediating these effects through epigenetic mechanisms, including small non-coding RNAs (sncRNAs). While most studies have focused on microRNAs (miRNAs), other sncRNA classes remain poorly characterized. Here, we characterized the placental sncRNA landscape and investigated its associations with prenatal exposure to MSDP and air pollution. The sncRNA expression profile of 390 chorionic villi samples from the Barcelona Life Study Cohort (BiSC) was measured using small RNA sequencing and the seqBuster/seqCluster pipeline. MSDP was assessed via questionnaire, and prenatal exposure to black carbon (BC), particulate matter [&le;]2.5 m (PM2.5), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) was estimated using hybrid dispersion-land-use regression (LUR) spatiotemporal models. Associations were evaluated using linear regressions adjusted for relevant covariates. We identified 979 placental sncRNA clusters, assigned primarily to miRNAs (33.2%), piRNAs (26.4%), snoRNAs (12.2%), tRFs (7.8%), and others (20.4%). MSDP was associated with the downregulation of miR-421 and the upregulation of multiple snoRNAs from the imprinted DLK1-DIO3 locus (SNORD113-4, SNORD114-2, SNORD114-3, and SNORD114-17), as well as the piR-26394. No sncRNAs remained significantly associated with air pollution after multiple-testing correction, although several miRNAs showed suggestive associations. Overall, this study provides a comprehensive characterization of placental sncRNAs and identifies previously unreported smoking-associated sncRNAs within the imprinted DLK1-DIO3 locus, expanding our understanding of placental epigenetic responses to prenatal environmental exposures.

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Estimating the correlation between rates of change in longitudinal studies in presence of dropout

Dörfel, R. P.; Ozenne, B.

2026-10-19 radiology and imaging 10.64898/2026.10.16.26365737 medRxiv
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Estimating the correlation between subject-specific rates of change is a common objective in longitudinal studies. A natural approach is to fit ordinary least squares regressions per subject and correlate the resulting slope estimates directly. Under complete data, this slopes-first estimator is algebraically equivalent to a contrast-based plug-in estimator derived from the joint variance-covariance matrix of the two signals across time. Under independent dropout, however, the slopes-first approach implicitly applies heterogeneous weights across missing-data patterns, introducing bias whenever the cross-covariance between the two signals is not constant over time. We formalise this result and propose an unbiased alternative that estimates the joint covariance matrix before applying the contrast. We further extend our results to include covariates as well. Simulations confirm that the slopes-first estimator is biased under non-constant cross-covariance while the proposed alternative remains unbiased. Further, we show in a real-world example that the two estimators can lead to different scientific conclusions and recommend that researchers working with longitudinal data inspect the missing data pattern to make an informed decision about the estimator of choice.

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Neurochemical fingerprinting of the Alzheimers disease continuum using 7 T short-echo-time brain single voxel 1H-MRS.

Dell'Orco, A.; Göschel, L.; Riemann, L. T.; Aydin, S.; Flöel, A.; Tietze, A.; Scheel, M.; Fillmer, A.

2026-10-19 radiology and imaging 10.64898/2026.10.16.26365733 medRxiv
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Introduction: This study aimed to characterize the neurochemical profile of Alzheimer s disease (AD) continuum stages using proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-MRS) data for brain metabolites and macromolecules. We used Orthogonal Projection to Latent Structures Discriminant Analysis (OPLS-DA) to classify diagnostic groups and assess feature importance. Methods: Our dataset consisted of 7 T short-echo time 1H-MRS spectra of the posterior cingulate cortex/precuneus of individuals diagnosed with AD (n = 27) or Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI, n = 27) and Healthy Controls (HC, n = 31). Classification used 100-round Monte Carlo cross-validation based on metabolite concentrations and macromolecular peak intensities. Variable importance in projection (VIP) was assessed across classification models to identify the most relevant neurochemical features. The resulting metabolite rankings were compared with previous literature to evaluate their biological plausibility. Results: Classification was strongest for AD versus HC (AUC=0.88) and lower for comparisons involving MCI. Metabolites contributing most strongly to classification included myo-inositol, ascorbate, and choline-containing compounds, consistent with previous studies on AD-related neurochemical alterations. In addition, specific macromolecular components were identified as relevant features, suggesting a potential contribution of MM signals to the characterization of AD-related neurochemistry. Discussion: These findings support the use of short-echo-time 1H-MRS as a complementary tool for characterizing neurochemical changes in the AD continuum, with potential applications in disease characterization and monitoring, warranting validation in larger cohorts.

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Deep Learning-Based Anatomical Level Classification of Craniofacial CT Slices: Comparison of CNN Architectures and Ensemble Methods

Nishimoto, S.; Nakajima, K.; Yoshiike, H.; Ishise, H.; Saito, T.; Kawai, K.

2026-10-19 radiology and imaging 10.64898/2026.10.16.26365710 medRxiv
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Computed tomography (CT) interpretation requires recognition of the anatomical level of each slice. Classification may facilitate preprocessing and AI-assisted fracture diagnosis. We developed deep learning models to classify craniofacial CT slices into six anatomical categories. A total of 11,769 images were collected from a multicenter database involving 10 Japanese university hospitals and the public Head-Neck-Radiomics-HN1 dataset. Patients were divided into training (70%) and evaluation (30%) sets. Five CNN architectures were trained from scratch, and hard- and soft-voting ensembles were evaluated. Individual-model accuracy ranged from 94.72% to 96.09%; the hard-voting ensemble achieved 96.46% accuracy (Cohen's k = 0.954). Although performance differed among individual models (Cochran's Q = 99.29, p < 0.001), the ensemble did not significantly outperform EfficientNetV2B1 (McNemar's p = 0.163). Errors occurred mainly between adjacent anatomical regions. Deep learning can classify craniofacial CT slices accurately and may support automated dataset organization and AI-assisted fracture diagnosis. External validation is needed.

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Vascular Proximity Coverage: A Novel CT-Based Marker of Pulmonary Vascular Distance to the Lung Parenchyma

Aguilera, S. M.; Sthanam, V. L.; Nakhmani, A.; Dransfield, M. T.; Bhatt, S. P.; Bodduluri, S.

2026-10-19 radiology and imaging 10.64898/2026.10.15.26365547 medRxiv
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Rationale: Conventional CT-derived pulmonary vascular metrics quantify vascular pruning but do not assess the spatial heterogeneity of vascular architecture. In COPD, peripheral microvascular pruning coexists with compensatory central vessel dilation, paradoxically preserving total vessel volume while reducing effective vascular penetration into lung parenchyma. Objectives: To develop and evaluate Vascular Proximity Coverage (VPC), a distance-based CT biomarker quantifying the spatial efficiency of pulmonary vascular distribution. Methods: This retrospective analysis included 7,881 COPDGene participants [PHASE] with complete vascular segmentations. VPC was estimated by integrating the area under the cumulative lung tissue coverage curve at distances of 0-10 mm from segmented vessel voxels. Multivariable models assessed associations with lung function, six-minute walk distance (6MWD), St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) score, mMRC dyspnea score, and all-cause mortality over a median follow-up of [10.8] years, adjusting for demographics, smoking, emphysema, scanner type, and BV5. The cohort was stratified at median BV5 and VPC into concordant (high/high, low/low) and discordant (high-BV5/low-VPC, low-BV5/high-VPC) vascular phenotypes. Results: VPC declined across disease severity (5.82 {+/-} 0.50 [UNITS] in non-smokers to 5.21 {+/-} 0.64 in GOLD 4; p < 0.001). Among spirometrically normal smokers, current smokers had lower VPC than former smokers (5.31 vs. 5.68; p < 0.001). Each standard deviation decrease in VPC was independently associated with reduced 6MWD ({beta} = -16.8 m, 95% CI: -19.5 to -14.0), worse SGRQ ({beta} = 1.9, 95% CI: 1.4 to 2.4), and greater dyspnea (RR = 1.05, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.08; all p < 0.001). The lowest VPC quartile was associated with 38% higher mortality than the reference quartile (HR = 1.38, 95% CI: 1.18 to 1.62; p < 0.001). The high-BV5/low-VPC phenotype showed 24% higher mortality than high-BV5/high-VPC (HR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.08 to 1.42; p = 0.002) despite preserved vessel volume. Conclusions: VPC captures spatial heterogeneity of vascular architecture independent of vessel volume, is reduced in smokers without airflow obstruction, and identifies excess mortality risk among individuals whose total vessel volume appears preserved.